The yield on the 2-year Treasury note continued to decline last week and finished the week at a lower yield than at the start of 2009. The fact the 2-year Treasury yield is now lower on a year-to-date basis is startling considering the robust performance of riskier investments such as Corporate Bonds, High-Yield Bonds, Commodities, and even stocks. On the surface, a new low for the year on the 2-year note would indicate a budding flight-to-safety rally. However, there are several rational reasons for the drop in 2-year Treasury yields, none of which are related to heightened risk aversion among investors about a renewed economic downturn.
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